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post #1 of 43 (permalink) Old 03-05-2015, 11:28 AM Thread Starter
 
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Doomsdayer financial analysts and coming second recession?

I have a couple of friends who are in the financial industry and their usually very conservative game plans and pointing to the volatility of the market has usually been accurate. It's very pessimistic. I will always hear the 12% percent rule around here (silicon valley region in California) where after a downturn in real estate, any growth past 12% percent of the bottom value in a 12 month period can and will spell trouble down the line. Hope your real estate grows, yes, but slowly as to avoid big, sudden falls. And this can relate to other investments, too.

But then I read a lot of business "pop" magazines who have to entertain as well as educate and those publications like Forbes, Fortune, and Businessweek love to break the story on the next big thing (Gold, then dot.com, then real estate, sure fire companies like Enron and Worldcomm, then US oil, etc) and emphasize get rich quick. There are a lot of returning and new real estate agents who are thrilled to see the local real estate growing at 15% percent, and even 20% percent and think the market is mostly isolated from the woes of Wall Street. There's a huge sense of optimism that the recession is over and things will snap back into play "right away".

............

I see merit in both sides and both have times in history that can back their point, but I often wonder about another big recession (mostly guaranteed by modern era volatility). I lived through the big drops and downturn in the early 1980s just as I finished high school, saw how the economy in 1992 shaped a presidential election and brought it to the forefront, and then saw this latest downturn. I don't know if it's my generation having seen more bad than good, or if things are as unstable as they seem and will continue on that path.

Below is an article on Canada but represents some of the fear based "facts" I heard right before the giant downturn in San Jose which rivaled dot.bomb. When hearing about how things are connected I stayed put but my buddies who didn't heed real estate market vulnerabilities lost several lifetimes worth of earnings:

http://blogs.reuters.com/financial-r...ral-bank-says/

Thoughts?

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post #2 of 43 (permalink) Old 03-05-2015, 12:13 PM
 
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Re: Doomsdayer financial analysts and coming second recession?

Canada will experience a market value correction, just as the US did in '08 & '09. I live in Florida, where financial institutions were handing out $350,000 mortgages to barely-qualified buyers for houses worth up to half what their true value was.

Where the US is concerned, I think we'll see a flat-line in growth for 2015, or perhaps a very modest growth.

BUT... the stage is set for a recurrence of the precursors that led to the Great Recession. 2016 is when another recession could come.

Four things are required to allow a recession to occur: (1) greed, (2) poor risk assessment / management, (3) poor regulatory enforcement, and (4) short memories. Greed will never go away. It is incredibly clear that the greedy financial community will never develop more than a quarterback's memory (i.e., very short). Risk management procedures and regulatory mechanisms have improved somewhat, but since things picked up in 2011/12, they've been diluted to further gain economic momentum as time has passed and people have come to have a little more disposable income.

We just forget. Until the recession demon comes calling again...

My advice? If your chosen profession/industry doesn't do well in lean economic climates, diversify now - before the proverbial **** hits the fan. My wife & I were decimated at the start of the previous recession in '08. As a result, we opened our own businesses. We own and do well today, with a pair of service-based businesses opened during the last recession. Now we both sell services and deal in items people must have - recession or not. Never again will my butt be caught off guard.
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post #3 of 43 (permalink) Old 03-05-2015, 12:25 PM Thread Starter
 
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Re: Doomsdayer financial analysts and coming second recession?

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Canada will experience a market value correction, just as the US did in '08 & '09. I live in Florida, where financial institutions were handing out $350,000 mortgages to barely-qualified buyers for houses worth up to half what their true value was.

Where the US is concerned, I think we'll see a flat-line in growth for 2015, or perhaps a very modest growth.

BUT... the stage is set for a recurrence of the precursors that led to the Great Recession. 2016 is when another recession could come.

Four things are required to allow a recession to occur: (1) greed, (2) poor risk assessment / management, (3) poor regulatory enforcement, and (4) short memories. Greed will never go away. It is incredibly clear that the greedy financial community will never develop more than a quarterback's memory (i.e., very short). Risk management procedures and regulatory mechanisms have improved somewhat, but since things picked up in 2011/12, they've been diluted to further gain economic momentum as time has passed and people have come to have a little more disposable income.

We just forget. Until the recession demon comes calling again...

My advice? If your chosen profession/industry doesn't do well in lean economic climates, diversify now - before the proverbial **** hits the fan. My wife & I were decimated at the start of the previous recession in '08. As a result, we opened our own businesses. We own and do well today, with a pair of service-based businesses opened during the last recession. Now we both sell services and deal in items people must have - recession or not. Never again will my butt be caught off guard.
I hear you. Thanks for your experiences.

I don't know it but that combination of greed and little/no regulation seems to be very close to a guarantee of an ongoing rollercoaster ride. The dips tend to be worse than the recoveries imho (or at least in and around silicon valley) so that's why I have been self-employed my whole life. During recession Santa Clara County had the second worst level of poverty of all counties in the USA and that was due to overspeculation and overheating. People were going into huge debt paying rent just to live here waiting for that sudden gold rush. Yeah you get the early investors of a Google or post-iPod Apple but there are many more losers.

I never made that much (compared to the general public, but maybe better than my fellow musicians in general ) but I also never put myself in a place where it can all end in one day like getting fired. Service based keeps income coming in but it also doesn't go big like having a hit record or buying and selling high risk properties to the Chinese. I certainly don't need that type of stress and a tiny downturn in China in commercial real estate basically "decimated" my friends commercial real estate business. When things were good they were great but the business required a certain amount of growth or it was total ruin. It was not unlike those successful farmers you hear who are high on the hog until it can all go south with ONE bad crop season. That's not the high stakes I like but then again the super successful people I know played high stakes games with a lot of risk. And yes, many of those totally got busted down to zero, too. Live by the gun die by the gun I guess.

Successful investor, formerly great Dallas QB Roger Staubach, got into doing long term safer stuff outside of football knowing that one blind hit was all it could take to end his great career and star NFL income. He was America's quarterback but he knew that he could be totally forgotten a year outside of his last game. He could have gone a couple of more years and maybe got another Super Bowl ring, but before he was done in the NFL he was already looking to get something safer than just a volatile football gig. As we know now, it's not just your body on the line and getting over a banged up limb or two, but unrecoverable injuries to the brain. I kind of think totally blind faith in real estate investing is like one huge head injury!

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post #4 of 43 (permalink) Old 03-05-2015, 12:38 PM
 
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Re: Doomsdayer financial analysts and coming second recession?

A broken clock is right twice a day, as they say.

The truth is almost certainly somewhere in the middle. Unemployment is falling, workforce participation is picking up, and while wage inflation has been very low, recent voluntary moves by WalMart and, I believe, TJX to increase their minimun wage were probably partly politically motivated but also partly due to a tightening labor force. GDP growth has slowed somewhat since the last couple quarters (where it was exceptionally strong), but we've also seen a significantly stronger dollar since; my gut feeling is that the strengthening dollar has a lot to do with the impending ECB quantitative easing, but also with the collapse in the price of oil, which has not been without a stimulative effect of its own.

The real test I think will be what happens when the ECB begins bond-buying next week, and how exports hold up against a strengthening dollar. Imports will, in USD terms, become cheaper if the dollar continues to strengthen, and between foreign investors chasing yield and the drop in inflation expectations that could cause, bond yields may actually continue to drift lower in this move's wake.

Long story short, we're not out of the woods yet, but I'd rather be an American than a participant in virtually any other economy right now.
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post #5 of 43 (permalink) Old 03-05-2015, 12:46 PM Thread Starter
 
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Re: Doomsdayer financial analysts and coming second recession?

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A broken clock is right twice a day, as they say.

The truth is almost certainly somewhere in the middle. Unemployment is falling, workforce participation is picking up, and while wage inflation has been very low, recent voluntary moves by WalMart and, I believe, TJX to increase their minimun wage were probably partly politically motivated but also partly due to a tightening labor force. GDP growth has slowed somewhat since the last couple quarters (where it was exceptionally strong), but we've also seen a significantly stronger dollar since; my gut feeling is that the strengthening dollar has a lot to do with the impending ECB quantitative easing, but also with the collapse in the price of oil, which has not been without a stimulative effect of its own.

The real test I think will be what happens when the ECB begins bond-buying next week, and how exports hold up against a strengthening dollar. Imports will, in USD terms, become cheaper if the dollar continues to strengthen, and between foreign investors chasing yield and the drop in inflation expectations that could cause, bond yields may actually continue to drift lower in this move's wake.

Long story short, we're not out of the woods yet, but I'd rather be an American than a participant in virtually any other economy right now.
That's good enough news for me right now. I don't expect miracles or being completely out of the woods yet, but I may have to just relax a little knowing that it's not as bad as it once was.
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post #6 of 43 (permalink) Old 03-05-2015, 01:28 PM
 
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Re: Doomsdayer financial analysts and coming second recession?

In my opinion income inequality is the big issue. The paradox in my mind is that I don't like any of the ideas to fix this as artificial adjustment would likely lead to inflation. The market should really be the driver behind rising wages. But with everything being made in China and a race to the bottom in manufacturing costs there's zero pressure upwards on wages in that realm. Sure, there's pressure upward in jobs that are needed and go unfilled. I'm lucky enough to be in (somewhat) of a STEM field but even those jobs aren't immune to a sharp economic downturn.
The secret is paying people more - but no company will voluntarily do that without good reason as it runs counter to macro and microeconomic theory.
And it's the people in lower income brackets that need to make more as they are more likely to turn around and spend more. I believe in the velocity of money and IMO the more wealth concentrated into fewer hands slows that velocity down.
There's no easy fixes! IMO, with the advancements in technology and the greater interconnection between global economies we may see a sea change in economic structures. As it stands, the younger generation cannot pay for the healthcare and social safety nets for the Baby Boomer generation; and I'm talking globally! Many countries in the world are even trying to get people to have more children to pay into those pension systems but, seriously, more people on the planet means less resources for each person as a whole. All resources are finite and many markets will evolve into zero sum game scenarios.
That's just my $0.02. I probably took that a bit far into left field than intended but...
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post #7 of 43 (permalink) Old 03-05-2015, 05:10 PM
 
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Re: Doomsdayer financial analysts and coming second recession?

Well, it's also been argued, successfully I think, that the primary determinant of economic growth is intellectual capital and the greater efficiency of usage of primary resources.

What are your thoughts on progressive taxation as an approach to decrease income inequality?
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post #8 of 43 (permalink) Old 03-05-2015, 05:27 PM
 
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Re: Doomsdayer financial analysts and coming second recession?

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Well, it's also been argued, successfully I think, that the primary determinant of economic growth is intellectual capital and the greater efficiency of usage of primary resources.

What are your thoughts on progressive taxation as an approach to decrease income inequality?
If anything we see forces at work to go the opposite direction. I think progressive taxation is fair (writing as someone who has a fair tax bill due as well) and I'd like to believe I'd feel the same way if I were actually rich. But we've seen a big push to reduce taxes on the higher income brackets and transfer the expense of government to the poor via increased payroll taxes or, at a state and local level, via use taxes. Florida loves use taxes it seems. Also, I paid for a good chunk of my education out of pocket and tuition in my time at a state college only went up, up, up every semester. You can bet a lot of the fat cats that pass these cuts send their kids to far more expensive private colleges I bet! Okay, so maybe I'm revealing a bit of a bias BUT it's an illustration how taxes are being pushed down for those at the top to be paid for at those at the bottom.
ALSO add to that the rich seemingly feeling that state and local governments should give them free stuff. Okay, I can totally get behind tax breaks to bring jobs into an area. But to pay for a stadium? Steven Ross had a group out looking for $300+ million in tax breaks to reno Dolphins Stadium. It gets rejected and what's the very next thing he did? Donate $200 million to the University of Michigan. He was only going to pay like $30 million out of his own pocket for stadium renovations. WHY should MY tax dollars go to that when clearly he has more money to throw into HIS business???
Then there's the companies that now seem to expect the federal government to back them up if they make unwise business decisions. People gripe about socialism creeping into the country at lower levels of income but having the federal government back your company is something at the HEART of socialist ideology. If a business makes a bad decision they should be allowed to fail, not have OUR tax dollars cover the expense. Okay, I plugged my nose and supported the bailouts and stimulus because the option IMO was the fall of western civilization itself - but under normal circumstances a business that fails should be allowed to fail! In the run up to the recession it seemed like all these mortgage brokers were counting on Fannie and Freddie to get backed up by the Fed. They seemed to see the car accident before it happened but said, "eh, let the taxpayer handle it." Maybe I'm wrong and I have my facts mixed up but that's how it seemed to me.
So, yes, I fully support progressive taxation. It kind of evens things out, no?
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post #9 of 43 (permalink) Old 03-05-2015, 05:39 PM
 
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Re: Doomsdayer financial analysts and coming second recession?

Typing quickly at work so I won't elaborate tremendously, but the main appeal of progressive taxation for me is that, rather than being simply re-distributive, it actually tends to impact the growth of wages at the margins. I don't think it's a coincidence that we saw executive compensation absolutely explode in the years after Reagan dropped the top marginal rate so significantly.
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post #10 of 43 (permalink) Old 03-05-2015, 05:53 PM
 
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Re: Doomsdayer financial analysts and coming second recession?

I can see that. I should elaborate that I don't ever think someone should be "punished" via taxation for being rich. Society just has bills to pay and IMO a progressive tax system is fair. The constant mantra of the right is lowering taxes and, so long as it's done smartly and for everyone, I support that. I just wish for once someone would say, "well we're shutting down or consolidating this government organization because it's redundant or unnecessary". That never happens! It took the sequester to get all those babies to take their medicine.
As far as doing other things like raising minimum wage I'm on the fence. I don't believe in artificial controls on markets but maybe it's an idea that's time has come. Perhaps in small increments.
Pay needs to rise. Rising tides lift all boats. If more people in this country were paid a fair wage we wouldn't be having a lot of these tough debates. There would be fewer problems in the economy.
I will add that if everyday Americans don't end up with more disposable income we will continue to o skip along the bottom at 2-3% GDP growth and moderate job increases. I'd say if the trend continues we might see a small recession in a year or so, maybe like the one in 2002. I don't think we'll have another big one for a while - fingers crossed!

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post #11 of 43 (permalink) Old 03-06-2015, 10:14 AM
 
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Re: Doomsdayer financial analysts and coming second recession?

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I can see that. I should elaborate that I don't ever think someone should be "punished" via taxation for being rich. Society just has bills to pay and IMO a progressive tax system is fair.
The income/wealth disparity is so great, and control of taxation is so far up that same "wealth ladder", how does a society go about overhauling and installing such a system? In essence, you're asking the wealthiest upper-echelon to tax themselves in greater amounts. That's highly unlikely to happen. Rock <-> hard place.

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As far as doing other things like raising minimum wage I'm on the fence.
As a business owner with employees who get paid across a wide range of incomes, raising minimum wage too regularly or too significantly hurts all businesses - small and large alike.

Minimum wage should remain minimal. It's there to propel people to better themselves. It is not for people to make a life of it, all the while receiving continuous, government-mandated raises. Business have to be able to afford that uptick, which is what should matter most - otherwise more jobs are lost! If minimum wage is the life a person chooses voluntarily, that person has failed. This kind of "everybody gets a trophy" mentality is ludicrous. It dilutes society's potential as a whole through trying to erroneously achieve an impossible balance between have's and have-not's. It can't be forced into a workable existence through legislation. Hasn't the de facto failure of the recent healthcare law proved that?

In practical application, it means that as a small business owner, I have already begun to choose NOT to hire low-end workers anymore. I'd rather search a little harder (and pay a few bucks more an hour) for an employee with some training, experience, and motivation. I won't hire and take on the cost of training entry-level nOObs who expect to get paid a premium (with little or no skills) just because the gov't says so.
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post #12 of 43 (permalink) Old 03-06-2015, 12:03 PM Thread Starter
 
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Re: Doomsdayer financial analysts and coming second recession?

Min. wage...begin rant.

When I got out of college within a couple of years I started my own business. I was a business major and this was the 1980s and the very definition of business was having a business. The political rhetoric of the Reagan era economics was that you can't go anywhere unless you do it yourself and you grow a business. The concept of working for others, even as a doctor or lawyer, was largely of a bygone era when socialism and the Great Society ruled the day. But from January 1981, all bets were off and everyone seemed to be "making it" whether it was starting a microchip processing plant or a dry cleaning business in the city. You could start a business selling aluminum siding or open a dealership selling sportscars but the whole secret was being your own boss and taking advantage of the huge incentives that were coming for owning a business.

When you are still a student in the dorms and when a roommate's older sibling, not much older than you, comes driving up in a new BMW because they started a new tech business in San Jose, you get very, very hungry to try and be the next Steve Wozniak or Bill Gates. And being in California, 9 times out of 10, the rich kid who started a great high tech business is a college dropout and the average age of such a person is often 19 when they start whether it's Larry, M. Dell, Fanning, Facebook dude, Steve and Steve, or Bill and Paul. The greed sets in, unfortunately, and those days in the 80s and 90s pretty much defined, or redefined the "me" generation. While I was a typical liberal in Northern California, and still am, we were possibly more greedy than any traditional Wall Street business conservative. These were weird times and there was this almost entitlement to having invented (per se) high tech and that we were all going to make it. Even kids working at Burger King were making close to $40K just working the line. What started with a few hundred tech companies grew into more than 3,000 in San Jose alone. The money investors threw into the region pretty much fed this myth and there were skads of companies without locations and without products yet the money kept on flowing. This of course was the recipe for dot.bomb.

But I still had some of my altruistic college beliefs at the inception of my business, but within a short time in my limited experience I got employees and was like any struggling, growing business who believed in paying the least possible to get by, keep employees happy, and keep customers happy. That worked for my small, entrepreneurial world which was me, my employees, and my customers.

But as I saw a few upturns and downturns in the economy and realized that it actually began to affect "me", then I realized that there's more to being a business owner and more to the concept of social responsibility. As a college student, it's easy to sing the praises of social responsibility and helping others and the community, and your state and your nation. But when you are in your 20s and you have to pay people, and you have bills of expenses of growing a business, it's not too uncommon to have all the ideals go out the window.

As I looked at more seasoned pros/business owners in what I did, I saw that some of them gave back to the community and were more liberal than me when it came to social programs and minimum wage. Why?

But now nearly 30 years later I do understand that if you don't have a decent minimum wage, you won't have a large customer base. Though I worked mostly for rich people who were my customers, I also did have some middle class and working class customers. There's no way I could just cut out the working class customers and think I am going to make bills at the end of the month. Some of those working class customers did make minimum wage but still constituted maybe 10-15% percent of my business. What business can sluff off 10-15% percent off the top and still survive? Very, very few.

So in the a macro sense I realized that moves to help the working class, gives me a more secure customer base, and that overall richer base gives me more work, and more work translates into things like more and better Ibanezes!

You can become rich and successful and hoard all the money you made selling your wares and services, but if all the money gets into the hands of entrepreneurs like Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, and there's little left over for the middle and working classes, then you end up with nobody to sell stuff to. And when you run out of customers, you too go down and quicker than you may think. Imagine if unemployment was 12% percent and then imagine if you are Apple Inc trying to sell the next iPhone. It doesn't take that much of a downturn for "luxury" items like the iPhone 6 to take a dive. Sales of stuff like Range Rover SUVs, which are cool but terribly unreliable, go down and wifey is not as likely to buy Jimmy Choo shoes when the economy as a whole is in trouble.

To make a long story short, you can't sustain an economy where too much money is held by too few people. Most of the big wealth made their gains selling to the middle and working classes.

Wealth redistribution as forced by the government? OK with me in this context. Looking at just a few articles and reading propaganda on youtube can make one say it's a conspiracy of the rich alone that created the disparities but I think certain booms and overestimation and greed led to the real reason for income inequality.

And knowing more than a fair share of EAs, CPAs, and tax lawyers, there's still a way to run a business and make it, even in business-unfriendly California. You can pay higher taxes and still make it and if you are wealthy and blame your loss of your money due to Uncle Sam raising your taxes, it's probably a fair chance that it was you, and not Uncle Sam, who spelled your financial doom. Many successful entrepreneurs, who also shape the wealthy in their respective countries, get by quite well and pay far higher taxes than the American business owner does.

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post #13 of 43 (permalink) Old 03-06-2015, 03:27 PM
 
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Re: Doomsdayer financial analysts and coming second recession?

Bluestreak: I totally get what you're saying how minimum wage shouldn't be a way of life. I've had minimum wage jobs in the past and worked a low-paying job through college. And that's one of the motivating factors of bettering yourself - of course! I went to college not just to make more money. My big motivating factor is so others would have far less of a say in determining my worth as an employee. I've read "Harrison Bergeron" and don't think the successful should be punished or that people should get an award for nothing. I get that.
HOWEVER, I don't see any other mechanism to help people earn more than potentially raising minimum wage. I'll repeat: I DON'T like the idea. But nowadays even college grads who don't have STEM degrees are being forced into low-paying jobs. This is ridiculous! And in my analysis it's because money isn't flowing through the system like it should. The velocity of money (for all it's imperfections of analysis) isn't increasing because more wealth is in fewer hands. I can give Bill Gates $1,000 and I can give a poor guy $1,000 and the poor guy will be far less likely to save it and far more likely to spend it - end of story.
Also, the idea that paying people more will result in higher prices for employers and automatically lead to layoffs is just not true. That's a scare tactic based off a linear equation that simply doesn't exist! Your success as a business to sell and retain (and gain) market share is dependent on a number of variable (and often chaotic) inputs. My business has had to increase prices over the last few years due to supply issues. This is not labor related and something industry-wide. Still, there are a number of other factors that keep us not only competitive but thriving! Your success as a business is not only dependent on how much you pay your employees. It depends on being able to hire well, attracting talent, having a good product, and delivering. There are also a number of other things that can affect your costs. Weather. Geopolitical issues. Energy costs. Currency valuation. The list goes on and on.
Above and beyond all of that your business still exists in a market - and typically most businesses have competitors. And with competition comes downward pricing pressure. The idea that pizza will cost more because you give the guy making it $2 more is not cause and effect. Who's to say that upward cost pressure doesn't spur innovation somewhere further down the line in making preparation of that pizza more efficient to offset that increased cost? I know I see this in construction. You pay your guys more and figure out a better way to do things cost effectively. Innovation. It's what this country was built on!
Lastly, I tend to see the labor market as lightning going to ground. Electricity is going to find the most efficient way of getting to ground as possible. Let's face it, if a business could get people to work for $0 and get away with it they would. Fortunately slavery is illegal in most countries so there has to be some kind of cost. People are paid a wage and we call that fair these days. Now, I don't universally like unions BUT they act as a counterbalance for business owners who would pay people nothing if they could get away with it. It's a balance - and in my opinion most systems work best when they find equilibrium. There's tons of BIG companies that are already trying to roll the clock back to 1890 trying to get people to do work for free. There was recently a band called Ex Cop who put up a rant on social media about McDonalds trying to get them to play their stage at SXSW. Mickey D's didn't offer to pay them but promised them free food and the "exposure" that comes from being helped by a major brand. Ooooo! How generous! Good for Ex Cop for calling them out online. How much does Mickey D's make anyway a year? You also see this with companies trying to get writers to provide free content on websites. Or especially people abusing the concept of interns, making them do things paid personnel used to do and expecting more while paying nothing; all for the promise of "prestige" or having a "quality name" on one's resume.
So, while I certainly don't agree people should be paid a lot to do nothing, I don't think they should be exploited to do things for next to nothing by those who have so much.
Carly Fiorina once said people don't have a God-given right to jobs. Well, guess what? Companies don't have a God-given right to customers either. If people don't have money they tend to buy less stuff.
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post #14 of 43 (permalink) Old 03-06-2015, 04:17 PM
 
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Re: Doomsdayer financial analysts and coming second recession?

I should also add that while I have genuinely mixed opinions of the new healthcare law there are two issues I have with it and healthcare in general.
On one side, yes, it isn't fair that a guy like me pays a lot more for health insurance while others get it for practically nothing.
But consider this: why, after all costs are considered should a pill that costs $50 to make cost $5,000? No one talks about how that's bad for insurance rates, how that blunts consumer spending, or outright gouges the public. If I did that in my business I'd be walked away in handcuffs!
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post #15 of 43 (permalink) Old 03-06-2015, 05:54 PM
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Re: Doomsdayer financial analysts and coming second recession?

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On one side, yes, it isn't fair that a guy like me pays a lot more for health insurance while others get it for practically nothing.
Someone or entity pays heavily for each and every personal health insurance policy. It's just that some businesses (mostly government) stupidly negotiated health care benefits not considering the real OOP (out of pocket) costs that rise significantly for those policies (and for aging workers who get more sick and ring up higher health care costs).

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But consider this: why, after all costs are considered should a pill that costs $50 to make cost $5,000?
Lawyers, lobbyists & bribery of course is the reason. That $50 pill cost increases 100x to get it to market and make profits in our corrupt system run by lobbyists... glen
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