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post #166 of 180 (permalink) Old 09-22-2014, 07:22 PM
 
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Re: Happy football is starting up!!

That SF game was tough to watch. And the Fins are stinking out the joint again!
I bust on the Florida Panthers but the Dolphins are right there with them in scarcity of playoff appearances.
Seattle still looks scary!
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post #167 of 180 (permalink) Old 09-22-2014, 09:19 PM
 
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Re: Happy football is starting up!!

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Originally Posted by Rich View Post
I agree, the rule is little different from the old sudden death, except it's a touchdown now, when you know full well Peyton can do the same thing on 1 possession. They should each have a possession until one fails to score.
As a Seattle fan since the mid-80's I can now relax since they got that Superbowl monkey off their backs last year. But I was livid when Peyton marched down the field and scored AND got the 2 pt conversion to send it to overtime! The Broncos redeemed themselves a little bit at least.
Glad the 'Hawks were able to put a solid drive together in OT and pull out a win though. The NFC West looks to be a tough division this year.

It's an improvement now that a team can't win the "sudden death" with a field goal... IMO. Not sure if the NFL should follow the NCAA overtime format though.
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post #168 of 180 (permalink) Old 09-22-2014, 09:22 PM
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Re: Happy football is starting up!!

I believe both should have the opportunity or "luck" of the toss plays too much into the outcome.
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post #169 of 180 (permalink) Old 09-23-2014, 02:46 PM
 
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Re: Happy football is starting up!!

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Originally Posted by Rich View Post
I believe both should have the opportunity or "luck" of the toss plays too much into the outcome.
I agree - way too much riding on a coin toss...it's not a "fair" thing to do to 2 teams that just finished playing a great game and wound up tied...
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post #170 of 180 (permalink) Old 09-24-2014, 09:26 AM
 
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Re: Happy football is starting up!!

I tend to err on the side of "you had multiple possessions to finish the job", but I do love the college overtime set-up. Could be something I would be interested in seeing with the NFL.

Only thing I'd change is to start at the 50 yard line, the 25 is too close and most pro kickers can hit a FG from the 35 (sans Alex Henery)
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post #171 of 180 (permalink) Old 02-03-2015, 02:42 PM
 
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Re: Happy football is starting up!!

worst play call in the history of football - nuff said =(
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post #172 of 180 (permalink) Old 02-03-2015, 02:54 PM
 
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Re: Happy football is starting up!!

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worst play call in the history of football - nuff said =(
As a Seattle Seahawk fan since the 80's... I agree. That one really hurt.

Although the word is that Lynch had 4 opportunites to punch the ball in from the 1 yard line this season... and got one TD out of the three tries. So maybe the coach had the right idea... but even at that, he could have run it around the end, gave the ball to Turbin, or just let Wilson run it in.
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post #173 of 180 (permalink) Old 02-03-2015, 03:07 PM
 
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Re: Happy football is starting up!!

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Originally Posted by FireEagle View Post
As a Seattle Seahawk fan since the 80's... I agree. That one really hurt.

Although the word is that Lynch had 4 opportunites to punch the ball in from the 1 yard line this season... and got one TD out of the three tries. So maybe the coach had the right idea... but even at that, he could have run it around the end, gave the ball to Turbin, or just let Wilson run it in.
yup, there were definitely better options than what they went with...it still drives me crazy when I think about it - they had that game in their hands...maybe the worst superbowl loss ever considering it was right there for them to win...brutal =[
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post #174 of 180 (permalink) Old 02-03-2015, 03:27 PM
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Re: Happy football is starting up!!

Imagine if Tony Romo threw that pick and any Cowboy coach since Jimmuh called that bone-headed play.

This is the problem with sports being anything but entertainment... one chuck-it-up-lucky-pass (or two Eli to Tyree or Eli to GlockLeg) is luck, not skill and no coach can take credit.

That said, some coaches look rather smart (relatively speaking in a pretty low IQ profession) by simply not being totally stupid (see Bill B.) ...glen
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post #175 of 180 (permalink) Old 02-03-2015, 08:37 PM
 
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Re: Happy football is starting up!!

It was actually a fascinating moment - great read on that call:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-pete-carroll/

Short version:

*Belichick kind of put Carroll in a corner by not stopping the clock (it quickly got eclipsed by what happened next, but at the time no one in the room could figure out why Belichick didn't call a time out). He had three downs, but only one time out so at best he could run twice or rsk the game clock running out on them at 4th and goal.

*Ignoring actual results, throwing vs running barely budged the probability of the Hawks winning, and may have given favorable assumptions actually have been the more prudent call.

*538 argues that Belichick's decision to NOT stop the call actually may have hurt the Pats' chances more than Carroll's decision to throw did, again looking at ex ante probability rather than what actually happened.

That said....

*Belichick probably deserves credit for drawing the pass on this down. It may have been the "right" call for the Seahawks to throw, and clearly there was a little gamesmanship between the two coaches here (a totally valid question raised by one of our traders from the Pittsburgh area and therefore no horse in the race here was, with a minute on the clock on the 2nd down, it's just as inconceivable that Carroll didn't call his last time out, and start at 2nd and goal with one yard to go with, say, 58 seconds instead of 28, giving him three plausible shots to run). There's also the fact that the Pats' D was configured to guard against a pass on that down, not a run; they were expecting it.

*taking this one step further... Butler has said in a couple interviews since that he'd drilled on this exact play all week., guarding against and trying to pick a pass across the goal line from short distance. As a good Bostonian I could fairly be accused of being biased here, but for all the negative things you guys may want to say about Belichick, he's a very thoughtful, very methodical, very crafty, and very rigorous coach. I don't pretend to be able to put myself in his head, but I think you can fairly imagine a situation where suddenly after a freak catch and a run the Seahawks are on the one yard line with less than a minute to go, Carroll doesn't call a time out figuring Belichick will, and Belichick, knowing if he doesn't Carroll will probably pass to not risk running the clock down further especially with his adrenaline up after losing 2/3 of the game time setting up, decides to call his bluff, and puts his team in a passing defense formation knowing that it's a play they've been running all week and they have a way-better-than-normal chance of intercepting it since they've just done countless dry runs. And, boom. Just like clockwork.

If that's actualy the case, well, you don't have to budge the probabilities much (2.1% in fact) on the liklihood of a turnover for running the clock actually being the winning strategy in this play, and in that case where Carroll really lost was letting Belichick into his head and letting him call his bluff by not calling that time out.

Also, parting thought - considering for the past two weeks the Patriots have had press conference after press conference patiently answering questions about a scandal whose physical evidence, forgive the pun, lost air with every passing day, while meanwhile Lynch held a press conference where he answered "I'm only here so I don't get fired" to every question, and then the Seahawks started a fistfight when it became apparent they were going to lose... How is it the Patriots whose sportsmanship is still under debate here?
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post #176 of 180 (permalink) Old 02-04-2015, 08:32 AM
 
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Re: Happy football is starting up!!

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How is it the Patriots whose sportsmanship is still under debate here?
I think its a human nature thing... If the Seahawks had punched the ball in at the end, it would be no big deal. But since they threw it away and the Pats won, with the proir breaking of the rules it becomes a tainted win. Not that I personally care about them deflating the balls, but it is perceived as "they cheated"... which is true to some degree. It's not like the Colts would have won that game if the balls had been legal anyway.

Aslo consider the David and Goliath factor... Very few people wanted "Goliath" to win the game. I have always been a Patriots fan, even had a Pats jersey on in my junior high school picture (the old red jersey)... but their recent domination of the AFC has me rooting against them on a regular basis. Brady and Belichick have enjoyed plenty of success, now its just getting to be too much.

And lastly... that Superbowl was the most watched tv program in the history of television. It is rated as one of the best Superbowls in history, being a close and competitive game to the end... but if the Hawks had scored that last touchdown for a come from behind victory in the last seconds it would have unanimously become THE BEST EVER... (except to MA residents... lol). I only knew of one person rooting for the Pats, a co-worker and close friend, and even he admitted that the game was lost, not won. It just ended on a sour note and left the masses stunned instead of celebrating, except MA residents of course.

Keep in mind these thoughts are from Seahawk fan that has endured countless seasons of disappointment and "almost made it". It's ok though... the fact that they finally won a superbowl last year in spectacular fashion and game so close this year takes some of the sting away.
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post #177 of 180 (permalink) Old 02-04-2015, 12:37 PM
 
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Re: Happy football is starting up!!

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Originally Posted by FireEagle View Post
...and even he admitted that the game was lost, not won. .
I totally disagree with this statement, by the way. It's a very easy narrative, especially if you have it in for the Pats (as does large chunks of America) and want to see an asterisk on one of the winningest QB/coach combos in NFL history, and it's easy to say that Carroll's decision to throw was so boneheaded that he lost the game.

Actually go through and read that analysis from 538 I posted, though. The thing is, the decision to throw rather than run, at the time the decision was made, may have actually increased the Seahawk's likelihood of winning and at worst hurt it by 0.3%. In other words, it was almost irrelevant in terms of how the call to throw changed the outcome of the game. How the play unfolded mattered hugely as it happens (and here it's worth reiterating that the Pats were positioned to guard against a pass, and Butler had been running that exact play all week), but neither team knew that when Belichick decided to let the clock run and Carroll decided to use his 2nd down to throw, and save his time out for a running play on the 3rd if the pass wasn't a completion.

This is also worth a look and aptly makes a point I've made elsewhere - you take away that miraculous catch at 1:06, and the Seahawks would have essentially had no shot at winning this anyway. Whatever you want to call Carroll's throw - bad call, bad luck, or Belichick flat-out outcoaching Carroll - you take away that one fluke reception to pull the Seahawks 33 yards up the field, and 49 times out of 50 they never make it to the 1 yard line.

http://graphics.wsj.com/super-bowl-live-odds/

I actually feel a little bad for Carroll - it was actually a pretty reasonable, if slightly conservative, coaching decision, yet he's going to single-handedly take the blame for "losing" the Super Bowl, because "the Pats didn't win, the Seahawks lost."

EDIT - and as far as deflategate goes, you've heard the more recent updates, right? That the NFL finally admitted that the initial press conference got it backwards and only one of the 12 balls was materially under pressure, and most of the rest were either ok or right on the line? Given a temperature change that Boyle's law would have explained about a PSI or so of change anyway? Manufactured controversy, just to get the Ray Rice story out of Goodell's hair and to drum up more interest in the game. Goodell will be gone after the season, and his replacement will give Kraft the apology he's looking for.
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post #178 of 180 (permalink) Old 02-04-2015, 03:31 PM
 
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Re: Happy football is starting up!!

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Originally Posted by Drew View Post
I totally disagree with this statement, by the way. It's a very easy narrative, especially if you have it in for the Pats (as does large chunks of America) and want to see an asterisk on one of the winningest QB/coach combos in NFL history, and it's easy to say that Carroll's decision to throw was so boneheaded that he lost the game.

Actually go through and read that analysis from 538 I posted, though. The thing is, the decision to throw rather than run, at the time the decision was made, may have actually increased the Seahawk's likelihood of winning and at worst hurt it by 0.3%. In other words, it was almost irrelevant in terms of how the call to throw changed the outcome of the game. How the play unfolded mattered hugely as it happens (and here it's worth reiterating that the Pats were positioned to guard against a pass, and Butler had been running that exact play all week), but neither team knew that when Belichick decided to let the clock run and Carroll decided to use his 2nd down to throw, and save his time out for a running play on the 3rd if the pass wasn't a completion.

This is also worth a look and aptly makes a point I've made elsewhere - you take away that miraculous catch at 1:06, and the Seahawks would have essentially had no shot at winning this anyway. Whatever you want to call Carroll's throw - bad call, bad luck, or Belichick flat-out outcoaching Carroll - you take away that one fluke reception to pull the Seahawks 33 yards up the field, and 49 times out of 50 they never make it to the 1 yard line.

http://graphics.wsj.com/super-bowl-live-odds/

I actually feel a little bad for Carroll - it was actually a pretty reasonable, if slightly conservative, coaching decision, yet he's going to single-handedly take the blame for "losing" the Super Bowl, because "the Pats didn't win, the Seahawks lost."

EDIT - and as far as deflategate goes, you've heard the more recent updates, right? That the NFL finally admitted that the initial press conference got it backwards and only one of the 12 balls was materially under pressure, and most of the rest were either ok or right on the line? Given a temperature change that Boyle's law would have explained about a PSI or so of change anyway? Manufactured controversy, just to get the Ray Rice story out of Goodell's hair and to drum up more interest in the game. Goodell will be gone after the season, and his replacement will give Kraft the apology he's looking for.
Yeah, I read and understand the stats and odds... but even the young blond girl up the hall knows they should have either handed it to Lynch or faked the handoff to Lynch... lol. It's easy to over analyze the play call, which the coach may have done as well. Being second down and having plenty of timeouts they had time to kill.

Lucky? The Hawks were beyond lucky to get past Green Bay two weeks before! They were extremely lucky to catch that pass at the end of the game that put them in a 1st and goal situation. And Butler was extremely lucky to intercept that pass. The Pats were lucky to get a win. I don't believe for one second that "Butler practiced that very play" becuase he know he would win the game for them in the waning seconds... it was being in the wrong place at the wrong time. I'm sure they practice every conceivable defensive scenario, especially goal line defense.

As far as whether the Seahawks lost the game or the Patriots won it.. You are supposed to disagree with me, due to your location. I'll let you see for yourself...

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/polls

And don't sweat it... I'm being an extremely sore loser at the moment. If the Pats had just dominated and won 28 - 0 it would have been easier to swallow that the iffy play call and terrible loss... when they had the win in their grasp. You have to admit, you knew the Pats lost for a little while! Just when it was about over, the pick flipped the results around. The only thing I can hang on to is the look of devastation on Brady's face when the ref called it a completed pass... 1st and goal. But you guys get the win and the trophy... and I would trade you any day! lol... At least it was an entertaining game right down to the dramatic finish.

I wouldn't doubt that the NFL would use "deflate-gate" for ratings purposes... and I also don't doubt that they would skew the numbers after it was over in order to put the matter to rest, as it diminishes and tarnishes the game. Nobody makes an innocent mistake... 11 deflated and one inflated.. then say "Oh, sorry.. had that backwards". Not even the NFL is that inept.

It's all good in the end... They don't make time machines, so its no use dwelling on it any more. I'm going through all the stages of a monumental loss... lol. I'm getting past the bitterness and moving toward "acceptance"... so I don't mean to be all snappy about it...

Last edited by FireEagle; 02-04-2015 at 07:52 PM.
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post #179 of 180 (permalink) Old 02-05-2015, 12:24 PM
 
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Re: Happy football is starting up!!

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Yeah, I read and understand the stats and odds... but even the young blond girl up the hall knows they should have either handed it to Lynch or faked the handoff to Lynch... lol. It's easy to over analyze the play call, which the coach may have done as well. Being second down and having plenty of timeouts they had time to kill.
Yet, there's a reason the young blond girl up the hall isn't a NFL coach, you know? It's a clear example of hindsight bias, man - because it DID happen, commentators are significantly overestimating the likelihood a pass on the 1 yard line was going to end in an interception. While I think you have to up the liklihood a bit because Belichick seems to have been planning for this exact play, a base case scenario has that ending in a touchdown or incompletion probably 99% of the time.

And second down, one time out. Realistically, they could have run at most twice with 28 seconds on the clock. Lynch was 1-for-5 at this distance in the regular season, meaning if that small sample is an accurate estimator of the true probability of him getting across the goal line, they had a 50% shot of losing the game if they ran him twice. That jives pretty well with the WSJ's simulated results from each down, which put the hawks as 66% favorites when they were on the 1 with three downs and 28 seconds to go.

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Originally Posted by FireEagle View Post
Not even the NFL is that inept.
See: "Handling of Ray Rice."
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post #180 of 180 (permalink) Old 10-25-2019, 08:56 AM
 
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Re: Happy football is starting up!!

I am always a hardcore fan of NFL, love to watch this game. This year I am bating for Los Angeles Rams, hope they will show their best performance wot win our heart.
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